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ConPericia – Dictámenes periciales al servicio de la abogacía http://conpericia.com Mon, 15 May 2017 00:28:52 +0000
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hourly 1 https://wordpress.org/?v=4.7.12 ¿Qué es un producto derivado? http://conpericia.com/que-es-un-producto-derivado/ http://conpericia.com/que-es-un-producto-derivado/#respond Mon, 13 Oct 2014 15:35:28 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=315 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

Un derivado financiero o instrumento derivado es un producto financiero cuyo valor se basa en el precio de otro activo (activo subyacente). Los derivados financieros son operaciones cuyo valor liquidativo depende del valor del subyacente. El activo del que depende toma el nombre de activo subyacente, por ejemplo el valor de un futuro sobre el … Seguir leyendo ¿Qué es un producto derivado?

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171_derivat_financerUn derivado financiero o instrumento derivado es un producto financiero cuyo valor se basa en el precio de otro activo (activo subyacente).

Los derivados financieros son operaciones cuyo valor liquidativo depende del valor del subyacente. El activo del que depende toma el nombre de activo subyacente, por ejemplo el valor de un futuro sobre el oro se basa en el precio del oro.

Son operaciones poco líquidas, no existe ningún mercado secundario que facilite su compraventa.

En la guía informativa de la CNMV sobre Opciones y futuros leemos que “No debe olvidarse que los derivados son productos sofisticados que cuando no son utilizados como cobertura conllevan riesgo de pérdida total de la inversión. Por lo tanto, invertir en ellos requiere no sólo conocimientos específicos, tanto de su funcionamiento como de los sistemas de negociación, sino en su caso, contar con predisposición a asumir riesgos elevados y tener capacidad para afrontarlos, además de dedicarles el tiempo necesario para realizar su seguimiento.”

La legislación actual establece que un derivado financiero es un producto financiero complejo. La complejidad de un producto la determina la dificultad para comprender sus características y riesgos. Cuanta mayor complejidad, se requiere mayor información y mayor protección.

Un derivado financiero es un producto de inversión, no de ahorro, es decir, no garantiza la devolución del capital invertido. El inversor ha de asumir el riesgo de perder en parte, o en su totalidad, el capital invertido a cambio de la posibilidad de obtener un mayor rendimiento que el que le ofrecería un producto de ahorro.

Son ejemplo de derivados financieros que alcanzaron una elevada “difusión” entre los inversores minoristas los depósitos estructurados autocancelables, es decir, aquellas apuestas que vencen automáticamente si se cumple el requisito establecido (tipo de cotización del subyacente). Apuestas que en muchos casos no se hubieran realizado si el inversor hubiera sido adecuadamente informado.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima Formosa.  Perito Economista de ConPericia

Última revisión: 25 de marzo de 2013 (en el blog Dirección Financiera de la PyMe)

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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Ahorrar no es invertir. http://conpericia.com/ahorrar-no-es-invertir/ http://conpericia.com/ahorrar-no-es-invertir/#respond Wed, 17 Sep 2014 15:08:17 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=309 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

A propósito de los productos de ahorro y de inversión. De acuerdo con la segunda acepción del término recogida en el http://lema.rae.es/drae/, ahorrar consiste en “Guardar dinero como previsión para necesidades futuras”. Invertir es, “Emplear, gastar, colocar un caudal.” El ahorro no incorpora riesgo. La inversión sí. El ahorro genera un rendimiento (intereses) cierto y … Seguir leyendo Ahorrar no es invertir.

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142_ahorrar_no_es_invertir

A propósito de los productos de ahorro y de inversión.

De acuerdo con la segunda acepción del término recogida en el http://lema.rae.es/drae/, ahorrar consiste en “Guardar dinero como previsión para necesidades futuras”.

Invertir es, “Emplear, gastar, colocar un caudal.”

El ahorro no incorpora riesgo.

La inversión sí.

El ahorro genera un rendimiento (intereses) cierto y seguro.

La inversión puede generar tanto un rendimiento positivo como negativo.

Esa incertidumbre respecto el rendimiento que incorpora la inversión lleva a que, para acometerla, el inversor exija la posibilidad de un mayor rendimiento.

…Pero obviamente, como ya he apuntado, esa incertidumbre supone que el rendimiento pueda ser negativo. Incluso puede llegar a perderse la totalidad de la inversión.

Podemos ahorrar mediante, por ejemplo, bonos del estado. Es decir, mediante, por ejemplo, productos de renta fija

…¡Pero cuidado! No todos los productos de renta fija son de ahorro, algunos son de inversión. Por ejemplo, las tristemente famosas participaciones preferentes, a pesar de ser un híbrido (que analizaré en un próximo artículo), son consideradas renta fija. Por tanto, “renta fija” NO es sinónimo de “ahorro”.

En resumen:

Ahorrar es guardar para mañana a cambio de un rendimiento reducido, pero sin riesgo de pérdida del capital ahorrado.

Invertir es guardar para mañana a cambio de la expectativa de un mayor rendimiento EssaysCaptain, pero asumiendo un riesgo de pérdida que puede alcanzar la totalidad del capital invertido.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima Formosa.  Perito Economista de ConPericia

Ultima revisión: 24 de agosto de 2012. (en el blog Dirección Financiera de la PyMe)

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¡Muchas gracias!

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¿Qué es el perfil de riesgo del inversor? http://conpericia.com/que-es-el-perfil-de-riesgo-del-inversor/ http://conpericia.com/que-es-el-perfil-de-riesgo-del-inversor/#respond Mon, 03 Feb 2014 08:35:09 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=299 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

La expresión “perfil de riesgo del inversor” se refiere a la capacidad del inversor para asumir pérdidas. Rentabilidad y riesgo tienen una relación directa, a mayor rentabilidad corresponde mayor riesgo. El perfil del inversor dependerá también de la tolerancia al riesgo, es decir, del grado de predisposición (o su falta) a asumir determinados riesgos. Tales … Seguir leyendo ¿Qué es el perfil de riesgo del inversor?

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La expresión “perfil de riesgo del inversor” se refiere a la capacidad del inversor para asumir pérdidas. Rentabilidad y riesgo tienen una relación directa, a mayor rentabilidad corresponde mayor riesgo.

El perfil del inversor dependerá también de la tolerancia al riesgo, es decir, del grado de predisposición (o su falta) a asumir determinados riesgos. Tales como, por ejemplo, el riesgo de pérdida del rendimiento y/o del capital invertido.

Un perfil de riesgo conservador corresponde a una intención de preservar el capital. La tolerancia a la pérdida es prácticamente inexistente.

El perfil moderado, a cambio de una mejor rentabilidad, está dispuesto a asumir un leve riesgo en cuanto a la posibilidad de asunción de una pérdida.

Un perfil agresivo buscará una mayor rentabilidad asumiendo un riesgo de pérdida elevada.

Por último, un perfil muy agresivo tiene muy poca o ninguna aversión al riesgo. A cambio de grandes rentabilidades estará dispuesto a asumir una pérdida que pueda llegar a alcanzar incluso la totalidad de la inversión.

Perfil inversor RSF

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima Formosa, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Última revisión: 3 de febrero de 2014

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¡Muchas gracias!

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¿Cómo interpretar el rating crediticio? http://conpericia.com/como-interpretar-el-rating-crediticio/ http://conpericia.com/como-interpretar-el-rating-crediticio/#comments Fri, 10 Jan 2014 11:05:05 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=292 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

El rating es una medida o calificación de la solvencia (capacidad de pago) del emisor para hacer frente a sus compromisos financieros. Las escalas de rating crediticio utilizadas por las principales agencias  de calificación de riesgo para calificar la deuda a largo plazo (es decir de vencimiento igual o superior a un año) son las … Seguir leyendo ¿Cómo interpretar el rating crediticio?

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El rating es una medida o calificación de la solvencia (capacidad de pago) del emisor para hacer frente a sus compromisos financieros.

Las escalas de rating crediticio utilizadas por las principales agencias  de calificación de riesgo para calificar la deuda a largo plazo (es decir de vencimiento igual o superior a un año) son las que se recogen en la siguiente infografía.

Escalas de rating crediticio utilizadas

¿Cómo interpretar el rating crediticio?

Mediante los colores de la escala he intentado plasmar la mayor seguridad de la deuda ”triple A” contra el mayor riesgo de la deuda “C”. Las letras en blanco o en negro no tienen otra intención que la de obtener un buen contraste que facilite su lectura.

La clasificación “AAA” es la máxima calificación asignable. La capacidad del emisor para cumplir sus compromisos financieros es extremadamente fuerte.

A medida que se reduce el grado de esa fortaleza para atender los compromisos financieros va reduciéndose la calificación.

En la categoría producto de inversión la peor calificación (Baa3,…) supone que el emisor tiene una capacidad comprometida pero suficiente para cumplir con sus compromisos financieros. Sin embargo probablemente la mínima adversidad económica o el más mínimo cambio coyuntural supongan un debilitamiento significativo de la capacidad del emisor para cumplir con sus compromisos financieros.

Calificaciones inferiores (Ba, … C) se consideran englobadas en la categoría “especulación”. Son obligaciones financieras que tienen características especulativas significativas. Su nivel de riesgo es elevado, incorporan un cierto grado de incertidumbre y exposición a condiciones adversas que se incrementan a medida que se desciende en la escala hasta la calificación mínima (C).

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima Formosa.  Perito Economista de ConPericia

Última revisión: 10 de enero de 2014

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Participaciones preferentes perpetuas: un producto híbrido. http://conpericia.com/participaciones-preferentes-perpetuas-un-producto-hibrido/ http://conpericia.com/participaciones-preferentes-perpetuas-un-producto-hibrido/#respond Wed, 20 Nov 2013 11:45:47 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=249 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

 Las participaciones preferentes son emisiones sin vencimiento establecido y de rentabilidad fija sujeta a la obtención, en cada periodo, de un beneficio suficiente por parte del emisor. Tal como apunta la sentencia de 15 de mayo de 2013 del Juzgado de 1ª Instancia número 10 de Barcelona: “Es esencial significar que el nominal de la … Seguir leyendo Participaciones preferentes perpetuas: un producto híbrido.

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preferentes Las participaciones preferentes son emisiones sin vencimiento establecido y de rentabilidad fija sujeta a la obtención, en cada periodo, de un beneficio suficiente por parte del emisor.

Tal como apunta la sentencia de 15 de mayo de 2013 del Juzgado de 1ª Instancia número 10 de Barcelona:

“Es esencial significar que el nominal de la participación preferente no es una deuda del emisor y por lo tanto no atribuye a su titular derecho de crédito alguno que le faculte para exigir su pago a la entidad emisora tal y como dispone la disposición adicional segunda de la Ley 13/1985 ya citada que obliga a que el dinero captado mediante participaciones  preferentes ha de estar invertido en su totalidad y de forma permanente en la entidad emisora,  de manera que queden directamente afectos a los riesgos y situación financiera de dicha entidad de crédito dominante y de la de su grupo. Es decir, tienen una función equiparable a la del capital social, computándose como recursos propios de la entidad de crédito emisora, al contrario de lo que ocurre en los depósitos, que se configuran como pasivo de la entidad; todo ello supone que el dinero invertido en preferentes está sujeto por disposición legal y de forma permanente a la cobertura de las pérdidas del emisor, lo que acarrea el riesgo de la pérdida total de la inversión.  Esto es, la percepción del cupón depende de que en cada periodo el emisor obtenga un beneficio distribuible suficiente; característica esencial es su perpetuidad, lo que supone que son emisiones sin plazo de vencimiento definido; son preferentes por el hecho de que el cupón tiene preferencia sobre el dividendo normal de una acción, si bien no hay garantía de su percepción, al estar sujeto, como ya se ha dicho, a la obtención de beneficios suficientes por parte del emisor, por lo que los preferentistas se sitúan tras los demás acreedores de la emisora; una nota importante de este tipo de productos es la posibilidad de que la emitente se reserve la posibilidad de amortización, es decir, se reserva el derecho a adquirir en una fecha determinada los títulos a un precio determinado.“

Esta opción de cancelación (call) que se reserva el emisor la ejercerá o no en función de sus propios intereses. Supone de hecho la garantía para el emisor de que mantendrá su coste financiero por debajo del tipo de interés de mercado. Por tanto, colisiona frontalmente con los intereses del inversor, que obviamente, pretende que el rendimiento de su inversión sea siempre superior al de mercado.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima Formosa, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Última revisión: 20 de noviembre de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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Redacción ¿engañosa? de un contrato financiero. http://conpericia.com/redaccion-enganosa-de-un-contrato-financiero/ http://conpericia.com/redaccion-enganosa-de-un-contrato-financiero/#respond Tue, 29 Oct 2013 18:30:11 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=242 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

 (Llegir l’article en català) Preparando una declaración como perito he pensado que pudiera resultar interesante recoger en el blog una de las ideas que plasma el dictamen que en su día se aportó a la causa. Se trata de un contrato sobre un estructurado financiero, es decir, el cliente recibe un rendimiento mayor o menor … Seguir leyendo Redacción ¿engañosa? de un contrato financiero.

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¿No es lo mismo! (Llegir l’article en català)

Preparando una declaración como perito he pensado que pudiera resultar interesante recoger en el blog una de las ideas que plasma el dictamen que en su día se aportó a la causa.

Se trata de un contrato sobre un estructurado financiero, es decir, el cliente recibe un rendimiento mayor o menor (incluso negativo) según la fluctuación que observe la cotización de las acciones que componen el subyacente.

En el caso analizado, según fuera la cotización del título de peor comportamiento, la operación podía resultar amortizada anticipadamente (ventanas de vencimiento anual) o bien alcanzar la fecha de vencimiento teórico (la peor opción para el cliente).

El Banco en el redactado del contrato apunta en todo momento que en caso de que se produzca la amortización anticipada, por ejemplo en la tercera anualidad, “el cliente recibirá el importe de la inversión más el 60% del nominal.”

La redacción, que es económicamente correcta, sin embargo, lleva a la idea de que se percibe un 60 % de rentabilidad.

Tanto es así que incluso el banco en sus comunicaciones con el cliente afirma que el producto ofrece una rentabilidad elevada, del 20 % anual.

…¡Y eso ya no es cierto!

La idea importante es que no es lo mismo la rentabilidad que la retribución. La inversión analizada ofrecía una retribución máxima anual (en el ejemplo el 20%) en función del comportamiento del subyacente. Si se produce la amortización anticipada en la tercera anualidad el cliente percibirá el nominal más el 60 %. Porcentaje que surge por adición del 20 % ofrecido en cada anualidad. Pero ese 20 % no es capitalizado, se trata únicamente de una adición.

¿Cuál es la diferencia?

La percepción del nominal (por ejemplo 100.- €) más una retribución del 60 % será:

100 + (1 + 0’6) = 160

El cobro de un nominal  invertido a 3 años con una retribución anual capitalizable del 20 % será:

100 + (1+ 0’2) ^ 3 = 172’8

Por tanto, la rentabilidad anual del 20% a 3 años supone una retribución del 72’8 % al nominal. No del 60 %.

Una retribución del 60 % a 3 años supone una rentabilidad anual de “sólo” el 16’96 %.

Como ya hemos comentado en muchas ocasiones, por favor, antes de firmar, es necesario leer y, sobre todo, entender, lo que estamos firmando.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Última revisión: 29 de octubre de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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Preferentes: La juez obliga a devolver más de 280.000.-€ http://conpericia.com/preferentes-la-juez-obliga-a-devolver-mas-de-280-000-e/ http://conpericia.com/preferentes-la-juez-obliga-a-devolver-mas-de-280-000-e/#respond Sun, 27 Oct 2013 23:15:06 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=184 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

Hoy estoy de enhorabuena y qué mejor que compartir esa buena noticia en el blog que en su día inicié precisamente con la intención de compartir. Enhorabuena al abogado Don Eduard García Vasco, miembro de Manubens abogados por obtener una sentencia que estima íntegramente la demanda presentada y cuya cuantía es ciertamente relevante. Estoy también de enhorabuena … Seguir leyendo Preferentes: La juez obliga a devolver más de 280.000.-€

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Preferents-300x221

Hoy estoy de enhorabuena y qué mejor que compartir esa buena noticia en el blog que en su día inicié precisamente con la intención de compartir.

Enhorabuena al abogado Don Eduard García Vasco, miembro de Manubens abogados por obtener una sentencia que estima íntegramente la demanda presentada y cuya cuantía es ciertamente relevante.

Estoy también de enhorabuena por haber podido participar como perito de la parte demandante.

Y agradecido a la juez del Juzgado de 1ª instancia Nº 10 de Barcelona por la expresión “Obviamente, como explicó con claridad el perito en el acto de juicio (…).” Lo que entiendo supone un reconocimiento al trabajo bien hecho.

Si no me equivoco, es la primera vez que en materia de preferentes se condena a una Agencia de valores (Mirabaud Finanzas) y no a un Banco o Caja. Entiendo que es un hecho suficientemente relevante y que abre un abanico de posibilidades a los tenedores de estos productos.

Y es una satisfacción que quería compartir.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima, Perito economista de ConPericia

Fuente: Blog Dirección Financiera de la empresa

Última revisión: 27 de mayo de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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¿Tiene sentido la contratación de un swap? http://conpericia.com/tiene-sentido-la-contratacion-de-un-swap/ http://conpericia.com/tiene-sentido-la-contratacion-de-un-swap/#respond Sun, 27 Oct 2013 23:10:18 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=188 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

Un swap es un producto financiero complejo que ya hemos tratado en otros artículos (La no negociación bancaria, ¡Vaya sandez!, El valor de un swap) En este artículo se aborda la posible conveniencia de su contratación. Para la pyme, la contratación de un swap asumiendo un tipo fijo, puede tener sentido cuando está vinculado a una operación de … Seguir leyendo ¿Tiene sentido la contratación de un swap?

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169_swap_te_sentitUn swap es un producto financiero complejo que ya hemos tratado en otros artículos (La no negociación bancaria¡Vaya sandez!El valor de un swap) En este artículo se aborda la posible conveniencia de su contratación.

Para la pyme, la contratación de un swap asumiendo un tipo fijo, puede tener sentido cuando está vinculado a una operación de inversión y se desea estabilizar el coste de la financiación.

Supongamos que la empresa está interesada en acometer determinado proyecto de inversión cuyo rendimiento previsto es del 9%. La empresa entiende que en su situación económica y de mercado, el proyecto, para que sea económicamente viable, puede asumir un coste financiero de, por ejemplo, el 5%.

En el momento de la puesta en marcha del proyecto los tipos variables a que podría contratar la financiación están en torno al 4%, pero considera que existen expectativas alcistas que se mantendrán durante la vida de la inversión y desea cubrir la contingencia de una subida de los tipos por encima de ese límite del 5%.

Entonces podría contratar una permuta financiera en la que, asumiendo un tipo fijo algo superior al variable vigente o incluso equivalente a ese 5% del límite, cubriera el mencionado riesgo. Todo ello para evitar, dentro de lo posible, las pérdidas que podrían producir las fluctuaciones de las tasas correspondientes.

De esta forma quedaría cubierta frente a una posible subida de los tipos. Obviamente, mientras los tipos variables se mantuvieran por debajo del tipo fijo contratado estaría asumiendo una pérdida. Pérdida que debería considerar como el precio de esa cobertura (que no seguro).

A su vez, la otra parte contratante del swap estaría interesada en asumir un tipo variable si sus previsiones de fluctuación de los tipos le llevaran a suponer que éstos no superarían el tipo fijo pactado. Mientras el tipo variable de cada periodo resulte inferior al tipo fijo pactado, las liquidaciones le resultarán favorables.

Antes de contratar un swap debe asumirse que un swap no es un seguro, es únicamente un producto financiero que intenta dar cobertura a una posible fluctuación del subyacente (¡no asegurar!).

Tal como apunta la Sentencia del Juzgado de lo Mercantil, nº 1, de Girona, de 9 de septiembre de 2010: “En realidad estamos en presencia de lo que es una auténtica apuesta sobre la evolución de los tipos de interés, con el riesgo inherente a la incertidumbre propia de la variabilidad de los tipos de interés”.

Resulta evidente que tal contratación se basa casi exclusivamente en las previsiones de fluctuación esperada del precio del subyacente (tipo de interés, tasa de inflación, etc.). En la medida en que las previsiones resulten acertadas la operación financiera resultará más o menos beneficiosa.

Por ello debemos entender que disponer de acceso a las mejores previsiones financieras es un condicionante crucial para la adecuada estimación de situaciones futuras.

En este sentido, disponer de los informes económicos de las distintas entidades financieras (bancos y cajas), así como los emitidos por compañías como Bloomberg y Reuters permitirá una valoración más acertada.

Cuando una parte disponga de mejor información que la otra se producirá, evidentemente, una posición de privilegio de la primera respecto de la segunda.

En resumen ¿Cuándo puede tener sentido para la empresa la contratación de un swap asumiendo un tipo fijo?

Como posible cobertura ante alzas de tipos, únicamente cuando:

  • Se disponga de expectativas fiables en torno a esa posible alza
  • El nocional y los vencimientos se adecúen a los de la inversión asociada a que debe dar cobertura.
  • Se conozcan exactamente los riesgos que se asumen y se tenga capacidad para afrontarlos.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Fuente: Blog Dirección Financiera de la empresa

Última revisión: 11 de marzo de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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¡Vaya sandez! http://conpericia.com/vaya-sandez/ http://conpericia.com/vaya-sandez/#comments Sun, 27 Oct 2013 23:07:55 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=214 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

 El artículo de hoy surge como consecuencia de la lectura de un artículo de difusión sobre el riesgo de subida de tipos de interés y la “bondad” de un determinado swap para cubrir ese riesgo. Artículo que está auspiciado por una entidad financiera nacional. En él, para una mejor explicación, se definen los posibles escenarios de … Seguir leyendo ¡Vaya sandez!

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163_Quina_bajanada

 El artículo de hoy surge como consecuencia de la lectura de un artículo de difusión sobre el riesgo de subida de tipos de interés y la “bondad” de un determinado swap para cubrir ese riesgo. Artículo que está auspiciado por una entidad financiera nacional.

En él, para una mejor explicación, se definen los posibles escenarios de variación de tipos de interés y se distinguen:

Escenario bajista, moderadamente alcista, alcista y muy alcista.

En principio, uno espera que escenario bajista se refiera a aquella situación en que los tipos de interés, tras un periodo de tiempo determinado se sitúen por debajo de los del inicio del mismo periodo. Por ejemplo el periodo dic-2011 a dic-2012, en que el Euríbor a 1 año ha pasado del 1’9 % al 0’5% (1 en el gráfico adjunto).

Será escenario moderadamente alcista cuando se observa una tendencia al alza. Quizás el periodo dic-2009 a dic-2010, en que el Euríbor a 1 año pasó del 1’2% al 1’5% (2 en el gráfico adjunto).

Alcista una tendencia al alza más acusada. De dic-2005 a dic-2006 el Euríbor a 1 año pasó del 2´8% al 4% (3 en el gráfico adjunto).

Y por último muy alcista en que se produce una escalada de tipos muy acusada. Tal como por ejemplo en el periodo marzo-2008 a junio-2008 el Euríbor a 1 año pasó del 4´4% al 5´4% en cuatro meses (4 en el gráfico adjunto).

Pero la sorpresa llega al leer que el escenario bajista ocurre cuando subiendo los tipos, éstos lo hacen por debajo de lo esperado. De esta definición se deduce entonces que si en abril de 2008 pensábamos que en julio el Euríbor podía alcanzar el 5’5%, entonces estábamos en un escenario bajista ya que el tipo “solo” subió hasta el 5’3 %. ¡Vaya sandez!.

La intención de este artículo de hoy es abundar sobre lo ya comentado en otras ocasiones, por favor, antes de firmar un documento, debe leerse y sobre todo entenderse. A menudo la “información” publicitaria e incluso contractual adolece de la necesaria objetividad. Y no me refiero únicamente a la que nos suministra el banco.

Saludos

Raimon Serrahima, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Fuente: Blog Dirección Financiera de la empresa

Última revisión: 25 de enero de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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El valor de un swap http://conpericia.com/el-valor-de-un-swap/ http://conpericia.com/el-valor-de-un-swap/#respond Sun, 27 Oct 2013 23:06:33 +0000 http://conpericia.com/?p=209 Warning: Use of undefined constant powered_by - assumed 'powered_by' (this will throw an Error in a future version of PHP) in /homepages/0/d240793314/htdocs/Conpericia/wp-content/plugins/wp-followme/followme.php on line 58

Recordemos primero que un “Swap” o contrato de permuta financiera es un contrato por el que dos agentes económicos acuerdan el intercambio de flujos monetarios calculados como tasa sobre un determinado valor nominal de referencia y durante un periodo de tiempo determinado. Mientras una parte paga el precio pactado, la otra deberá atender el pago … Seguir leyendo El valor de un swap

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162_swap-300x199Recordemos primero que un “Swap” o contrato de permuta financiera es un contrato por el que dos agentes económicos acuerdan el intercambio de flujos monetarios calculados como tasa sobre un determinado valor nominal de referencia y durante un periodo de tiempo determinado.

Mientras una parte paga el precio pactado, la otra deberá atender el pago en cada periodo en función del precio del subyacente en ese momento. Es decir, mientras una parte acuerda pagar una tasa fija, la otra pagará una tasa variable, liquidándose en cada periodo la diferencia a favor de una u otra parte.

Entonces, el valor del swap es igual a la diferencia entre el valor de cada una de las ramas o patas (variable y fija). Es decir, al momento de la firma el valor de los pagos a realizar por una parte (tipo fijo) debe ser igual al valor de los que realice la otra parte (tipo variable).

Para que la transacción sea neutra deberá cumplirse que ambas ramas tengan el mismo valor actual.

La diferencia entre una y otra rama será el precio del swap. La fluctuación que los tipos observen durante la vida de la operación llevará a que una y otra parte acaben asumiendo una pérdida o generando un beneficio.

En cuanto a la rama fija se identifican los flujos de caja futuros y se calcula su valor actual al tipo de descuento adecuado. Éste es el tipo cupón cero de mercado para cada vencimiento. Tipo de descuento que se determina a partir de la estructura temporal de los tipos de interés (ETTI).

La ETTI o curva de rendimientos analiza la relación entre el tiempo hasta el vencimiento de las obligaciones o bonos de mismo nivel de riesgo y su rendimiento en dicho plazo.

En cuanto a la rama variable, el método propuesto es el de determinación de los tipos variables. Este método toma como tipo de interés variable el tipo de interés forward, implícito en la curva de tipos cupón cero de la fecha de valoración.

El valor actual de los flujos del Swap en el momento de la compra debe ser cero, de manera que la transacción sea neutra para ambas partes. Pueden darse 2 escenarios:

  • Que el valor de la pata fija sea mayor que la pata variable. La parte pagadora de la pata variable deberá compensar (pagar) a la parte fija para así entrar en el contrato swap.
  • Que el valor de la pata variable sea mayor que la pata fija. La parte pagadora de la pata fija deberá compensar (pagar) a la parte variable para así entrar en el contrato swap.

En otro caso no se dará la necesaria equidad entre las partes.

Y a menudo este equilibrio entre el valor de cada una de las patas no ha sido adecuadamente valorado en muchos de los contratos que se han venido firmando en los últimos años.

Permítanme comentar como ejemplo un informe que acabo de cerrar. Se trata de un swap de 2,000.000.-€ de capital nocional y 3 años de duración en el que mediante esta metodología se demuestra que al momento de la firma del contrato el pagador de la pata fija asume un coste económico superior a los 24.000.-€

Equilibrio que se hubiera alcanzado fácilmente mediante 2 posibilidades:

  • Establecer un tipo fijo reducido 0’60% respecto al establecido.
  • Mediante el pago al pagador de la pata fija de dicha cuantía en el momento de la firma

Salu2

Raimon Serrahima, Perito Economista de ConPericia

Fuente: Blog Dirección Financiera de la empresa

Última revisión: 21 de enero de 2013

Si este artículo le ha parecido interesante, por favor, compártalo con sus amigos. Para ello puede utilizar cualquiera de las redes propuestas a continuación.

¡Muchas gracias!

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